MARKET CRASH!!! SELL EVERYTHING… Nah…nevermind.

Nearly everybody we’ve spoken to for the last week has been talking about how scared they are (or pissed off) when they look at their 401k’s. The market has been acting like shit and nobody seems to know who to blame first. The truth is, there are a few catalysts (as always) including the government shutdown, Apple (AAPL) slashing orders on the iPhone, Mattis resigning, the trade war, etc. It doesn’t matter though, not in the long run.

The fact that everybody is freaking the f*ck out is EXACTLY the kind of reason we’re not worried about a dot com or 2008 crash. Several things, tend to happen preceding the major crashes. A recession begins, the yield spreads have already inverted, the leading economic indicator is down, etc etc technobabble. For the layperson though, what you really want to know is this: when NOBODY is worried about their stocks going down, they crash. Bull markets end with a period of euphoria. Nobody in their damn right mind would call 2018 euphoric before stocks dumped off. This is what’s referred to as a sentiment indicator and how the big money makers bet against the crowd. You have to remember that in the beginning of learning, you are the crowd. So rest assured, this is just a correction. It may take a while to bottom out and it won’t feel good, but there is no reason to panic.

Please bear with us when news updates are few and far between. Alottt of research is being done at the moment to help in consulting clients and plan future lessons. We will be covering the real crash warning signs in-depth in the future.

 

What are Analysts Expecting for 2019?

  1. First off, they’re bullish on Energy above all else. That wouldn’t be too hard considering the smack down laid down on oil in October. Energy is followed by healthcare (another big shocker), communication services, and materials.
  2. Broad market expectations are mixed. With S&P 500 target estimates ranging from 2,705 to 3,350.
  3. If you read the above two things you realize that nobody knows nothin’… Earnings are expected to slow down as well as economic growth and we’re in for a hell of a lot more volatility. Time to sell premium (if you know how… and if you don’t stay tuned)

Factset’s Breakdown of Analyst’s Most Highly Rated Sectors and Companies

Barron’s Thinks Wall Street is Getting Bearish

Ed Yardeni (Forecasting Genius) Thinks Wall Street is Way Too Optimistic About Earnings

FinancialSamurai’s Roundup of Analyst Targets

Forbes Actually Has A Few Decent Stock Picks for 2019

 

Tax Loss Harvesting (Part 1 of How to Reduce Your Tax Bill like the Big Boys)

In the interest of saving time, a course of in-depth lesson breakdowns will come a bit later. In the meantime, we’ve attached a few articles to help out as an introduction to something most of you have never heard of. WARNING: this stuff is boring as hell… but if you truly want to get a better grasp on the types of things that separate the wealthy from the middle class, this is a must. You probably also don’t want to get an IRS bill saying you owe for something you didn’t know about. Note that Real Estate Tax Strategy is vastly more complicated and will come at a later time.

Now is a perfect time of year to learn the difference between Short Term vs. Long Term Capital Gains and FIFO vs LIFO (first in, first out vs. last In, first out) if you’re new. **Be EXTRA sure to read carefully about wash sales.** More investors get screwed over by these rules than anything else this time of year. Simply put, you can’t just sell something for a capital loss just for the tax benefit and then buy it right back within a month.

Quick Overview on Capital Gains

Short Term vs Long Term Capital Gains

Understanding Tax Lots (TD)

Tax Loss Harvesting (TD)

5 Tax Loss Harvesting Considerations (Fidelity)

How to Avoid Violating Wash Sale Rules

Taxes on Dividends

Basic Capital Gains Tax Calculator

Top Secret Portfolio Recipes (Asset Allocation)

Ok, some of these aren’t a secret. This page could also be called as “Don’t buy a book that makes you read 200 pages of boring shit just to get an allocation recommendation.” First and foremost, a lot of these are absolute garbage. The reason they’re being posted is so that more people will realize that books and blogs aren’t going to give you a magic bullet for allocation even if they cost an arm and a leg. Not everything you find on this page is hidden in a book, but for the sake of simplicity we’re just going to stuff it all into one page. Realize also, that a few of these have specific rules for entry and exit points which increase the risk adjusted returns.

7Twelve Portfolio – Craig Israelsen
(from 7Twelve: A Diversified Investment Portfolio with a plan)

  • 8.3% Domestic Large Cap Blend
  • 8.3% Domestic Mid Cap Blend
  • 8.3% Domestic Small Cap Blend
  • 8.3% World Total Stock Market
  • 8.3% Emerging Market Stocks
  • 25% Intermediate Term Bonds
  • 8.3% T-bills/Cash
  • 16.6% Commodities
  • 8.3% REITs

All-Weather Portfolio – Tony Robbins
(from Money: Master the Game)

  • 30% Domestic Total Stock Market
  • 40% Long Term
  • 15% Intermediate Term
  • 7.5% Commodities
  • 7.5% Gold

 All-Century Portfolio – Barry Ritholtz
(Ritholtz’s rebuttal to Tony Robbins)

  • 20 % total US stock market
  • 5 % REITs
  • 5 % Domestic small cap value
  • 15 % Pacific equities
  • 15 % European equities
  • 10 % TIPS
  • 10 % U.S. high yield corp bonds
  • 20 % U.S. total bond market

Black Swan Portfolio – Larry Swedroe
(from Reducing the Risk of Black Swans)

  • 15% Domestic Small Caps
  • 7.5% World Small Cap Value
  • 7.5% Emerging Markets
  • 70% Intermediate Term Bonds

Classic 60/40 – Jack Bogle
(The most commonly recommended stock/bond mix)

  • 60% Total US Stock Market
  • 40% Bonds (either Total Bond Market or Intermediate Term)

Coffeehouse Portfolio – Bill Schultheis
(from The Coffeehouse Investor)

  • 10% Domestic Large Cap Blend
  • 10% Domestic Large Cap Value
  • 10% Domestic Small Cap Blend
  • 10% Domestic Small Cap Value
  • 10% World Stock Market (ex-US)
  • 40% Intermediate Term Bonds
  • 10% REITs

Core Four – Rick Ferri
(from All About Asset Allocation)

  • 48% Domestic Total Stock Market
  • 24% World Total Stock Market
  • 20% Intermediate Term Bonds
  • 8% REITs

Coward’s Portfolio – William Bernstein

  • 15% Domestic Large Cap Blend
  • 10% Domestic Large Cap Value
  • 5% Domestic Small Cap Blend
  • 10% Domestic Small Cap Value
  • 5% Europe Total Stock Market
  • 5% Pacific Total Stock Market
  • 5% Emerging Markets
  • 40% Short Term
  • 5% REITs

Global Market Portfolio – Meb Faber
(This is a research based estimate of the global market’s asset allocations)

  • 20% US Stock Market
  • 15% Foreign Developed Market
  • 5% Emerging Markets
  • 22% Corporate Bonds
  • 15% 30-year Bonds
  • 16% 10-year Foreign Bonds
  • 2% TIPS
  • 5% REITs

Gone Fishin’ Portfolio – Alexander Green
(from The Gone Fishin Portfolio)

  • 15% Total US Stock Market
  • 15% US Small Caps
  • 10% Emerging Market Stocks
  • 10% European Stocks
  • 10% Pacific Stocks
  • 10% Short Term Corporate Bonds
  • 10% High Yield Bonds
  • 10% TIPS
  • 5% Gold
  • 5% REITs

Ivy Portfolio – Meb Faber
(from The Ivy Portfolio)

You definitely need the book for the intricacies of how to use this set. Worth the read.

  • 20% Domestic Total Stock Market
  • 20% World Stock Market (ex-US)
  • 20% Intermediate Term
  • 20% Commodities
  • 20% REITs

No-Brainer Portfolio – William Bernstein
(from The Intelligent Asset Allocator)

  • 25% Domestic Large Cap Blend
  • 25% Domestic Small Cap Blend
  • 25% World Total Stock Market
  • 25% Short Term Bonds

Permanent  Portfolio – Harry Browne
(from Fail Safe Investing)

  • 25% US Total Stock Market
  • 25% Long Term
  • 25% T-bills or Cash
  • 25% Gold

Risk Parity Portfolio – Meb Faber
(from Global Asset Allocation)

  • 8% US Large Cap
  • 8% Foreign Developed
  • 35% Corporate Bonds
  • 35% 10-Year Bonds
  • 5% Commodities
  • 5% Gold
  • 5% Reits

Swenson Portfolio – David Swenson
(from Unconventional Success)

  • 30% Domestic Total Stock Market
  • 15% World Stock Market (ex-US)
  • 5% Emerging Markets
  • 30% Intermediate Term Bonds
  • 20% REITs

Warren Buffett Portfolio – Warren Buffett
(from multiple interviews**)

  • 90% S&P 500
  • 10% Short Term Government Bonds

**An important piece of his recommendation is that you dollar cost average into the index. Do not buy all at once. The government bonds are a way to counter inflation vs holding cash.

 

ADVANCED: Calculating Total Cost of Ownership for an ETF

When reviewing an ETF, most people only look at the basis points (BPS) of the expense ratio. Most of the time things like tracking error and average spread aren’t even a consideration. Unfortunately, like high 401K or mutual fund fees, this can end up eating away at your long term profits. Its not necessary to do this for every ETF you’re looking at, but for ones you are undecided on or are planning to hold for multiple years this can be a deciding factor. The equation below will give you a better idea of how to compare ETF total costs.

Shared from ETF.com

“The most appropriate way we have found to determine a fund’s TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) is to use the following equation:

TCO = C + ½ SC + TE

C = management fees; SC = spread cost; TE = tracking error

Using this equation, it’s clear that an ETF with a higher expense ratio may actually have a lower TCO than an ETF that has a lower expense ratio and a higher NAV tracking error. In a real world example, the ROBO ETF’s NAV has a one-year tracking error of just .18%. Here’s what the TCO equation looks like with real numbers in place:

TCO = C (.95%) + ½ SC (.036) + TE (.184) = 1.17%

Now let’s compare that to a similar ETF with a higher tracking error. In this case, while the cost is slightly lower at .68%, the tracking error is significantly higher, at .75%. Here’s the equation:

TCO = C (.68%) + ½ SC (.0021) + TE (.75) = 1.43%

 

Original Post at ETF.com

Note: nearly every ETF database will list all 3 variables for you.

Eliminate Fear of the Bull Market Crash with One Piece of Info

Concerns are being thrown around by financial media that this may be the end of the bull market. Stansberry Research just put out this infographic that sums up why that’s total bullshit. Bull markets end with a bang, not a whimper. That being said, if you’re having trouble sleeping at night because of the volatility, it’s probably time to adjust your allocation and stop losses. Times like this are great for seeing what your real risk aversion is vs. what you think it is.

102618-RMD-SP-500-Gains-in-the-Last-Six-Months-of-the-Past-10-Bull-Markets-1-1

Stock Market Closed Today and Where to Find Market Hours

The stock market is closed today as a day of mourning for President H.W. Bush. On a related note, here are the links to where you can find the hours of the major exchanges as well as holiday schedules.

Stocks, ETFs,  and Options

New York Stock Exchange

Nasdaq

CBOE  (Options Market)

Regular hours: 9:30 a.m. TO 4:00 p.m. ET

Check with your broker to see when or if they offer pre or post market trading.

 

Mutual Funds

“Unlike stocks and ETFs, mutual funds trade only once per day, after the markets close at 4 p.m. ET. If you enter a trade to buy or sell shares of a mutual fund, your trade will be executed at the next available net asset value, which is calculated after the market closes and typically posted by 6 p.m. ET.”

Reposted from Fidelity

 

CME (Futures Market)

Futures trade on a VERY different schedule than other securities. For this reason, there alot of traders that prefer futures because of the nearly round the clock availability of trading.

“Trading hours are in U.S. Central Time unless otherwise stated.

For products traded solely via CME ClearPort Clearing, the hours are as follows: 
Sunday-Friday 6:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. New York time/ET (5:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. Chicago Time/CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. CT)

For weather products traded solely via CME ClearPort Clearing, the hours are as follows: 
Sunday-Friday 7:00 p.m.- 6:45 p.m. New York time/ET (6:00 p.m.- 5:45 p.m. Chicago Time/CT) with a 15-minute break each day beginning at 6:45 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. (5:45 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. CT)”

Reposted from CME

 

World Market Stock Basic Schedules